The Structure of American Political Discontent

Abstract We explore the role of “political discontent” as a second dimension of American public opinion. Others have shown that a second dimension tends to capture social and/or racial attitudes. What happens when indicators of discontent are included in such analyses? Using data from two surveys and the ordered optimal classification (OOC) procedure, we scale seven items from the “discontent” literature alongside a larger set of questions that has been shown to capture the two-dimensional structure of mass opinion. Discontent items dominate the second dimension in both data sets. Further, five of the seven items predict voting for “insurgents” in the 2016 presidential primaries. Second-dimension attitudes matter in elections and concern the political system writ large. By extension, the liberal-conservative heuristic gives an incomplete picture of mass political behavior.


I. AAPOR Ethics Data Disclosure
Appendix Sample matching is a methodology for selection of "representative" samples from nonrandomly selected pools of respondents. It is ideally suited for Web access panels, but could also be used for other types of surveys, such as phone surveys. Sample matching starts with an enumeration of the target population. For general population studies, the target population is all adults, and can be enumerated through the use of the decennial Census or a high quality survey, such as the American Community Survey. In other contexts, this is known as the sampling frame, though, unlike conventional sampling, the sample is not drawn from the frame. Traditional sampling, then, selects From the VSG methodology report: "The Views of the Electorate Research (VOTER) Survey was conducted by the survey firm YouGov. In total, 8,000 adults (age 18+) with internet access took the survey on-line between November 29 and December 29, 2016. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 2.2%. YouGov also supplied measures of primary voting behavior from the end of the primary period (July 2016), when these respondents had been contacted as part of a different survey project.
These respondents were originally interviewed by YouGov in 2011-2012 as part of the 2012 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project (CCAP). In that survey, 45,000 respondents were first interviewed in December 2011 and were interviewed a second time in one of the 45 weekly surveys between January 1 and November 8, 2012. After the November election, 35,408 respondents were interviewed a third time. For this survey 11,168 panelists from 2012 CCAP were invited to respond individuals from the sampling frame at random for participation in the study. This may not be feasible or economical as the contact information, especially email addresses, is not available for all individuals in the frame and refusals to participate increase the costs of sampling in this way.
Sample selection using the matching methodology is a twostage process. First, a random sample is drawn from the target population. We call this sample the target sample. Details on how the target sample is drawn are provided below, but the essential idea is that this sample is a true probability sample and thus representative of the frame from which it was drawn. However, YouGov is not able to contact these individuals directly. Therefore, the second step is that for each member of the target sample, we select one or more matching members from our pool of opt-in respondents. This is called the matched sample. Matching is accomplished using a large set of variables that are available in consumer and voter databases for both the target population and the opt-in panel.
The purpose of matching is to find an available respondent who is as similar as possible to the selected member of the target sample. The result is a sample of respondents who have the same measured characteristics as the target sample. Under certain conditions, described below, the matched sample will have similar properties to a true and 8,637 of them (77%) completed the 2016 survey.
The 2012 CCAP was constructed using YouGov's sample matching procedure. A stratified sample is drawn from YouGov's panel, which consists of people who have agreed to take occasional surveys. The strata are defined by the combination of age, gender, race, and education, and each stratum is sampled in proportion to its size in the U.S. population. Then, each element of this sample is matched to a synthetic sampling frame that is constructed from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, the Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, and other databases. The matching procedure finds the observation in the sample from YouGov's panel that most closely matches each observation in the synthetic sampling frame on a set of demographic characteristics. The resulting sample is then weighted by a set of demographic and nondemographic variables (in the dataset, this is the variable "weight")." random sample. That is, the matched sample mimics the characteristics of the target sample. It is, as far as we can tell, representative of the target population (because it is similar to the target sample).
When choosing the matched sample, it is necessary to find the closest matching respondent in the panel of opt-ins to each member of the target sample. Various types of matching could be employed: exact matching, propensity score matching, and proximity matching." The data for this project come from one of the 60 team modules that make up the 2016 CCES. All parts are collected using the same process and each team module is produces a nationally representative dataset of 1000 Optimal classification does not incorporate survey weights. The weights were not used in any of the analyses in this research note.
Optimal classification does not incorporate survey weights. The weights were not used in any of the analyses in this research note.

II. Full Question Wording of Items Included, CCES ROC Module (2016)
Immigration (3 questions Racial Issues (4 items): Here are a few statements about race in America. Please tell uswhether you agree or disagree with each statement. (response options: Strongly agree; Agree; Somewhat disagree; Disagree) race_deservemore_2016: Over the past few years, Blacks have gotten less than they deserve race_overcome_2016: Other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up, Blacks should do the same without any special favors race_tryharder_2016: It's really a matter of some people not trying hard enough; if Blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as Whites race_slave_2016: Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for Blacks to work their way out of the lower class Efficacy Battery (3 items): Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: (response options: Strongly agree; Agree; Disagree; Strongly disagree) RIGGED_SYSTEM_1_2016: Elections today don't matter; things stay the same no matter who we vote in. RIGGED_SYSTEM_5_2016: People like me don't have any say in what the government does. RIGGED_SYSTEM_6_2016: Elites in this country don't understand the problems I am facing.